The Cult of Successful Success: The Myths Behind Success Stories

[Anderson]

Audio version of the post:

 

Every day, you're bombarded with videos titled "How to Become Successful," "7 Secrets of Successful People," "10 Habits of Successful Individuals," and many more. We live in an era where everyone claims to have a surefire way to make you rich, often through expensive courses promising the same wealth they flaunt on social media—luxury cars, lavish homes, and piles of cash. The allure is irresistible: if it worked for them, why not for you?

So, you take the plunge, buy the course, and absorb the material. But soon, the only thing that changes is your credit card balance. Your life remains the same. Success stories sell well, fed to us from childhood. We hear tales of college dropouts becoming billionaires, smokers living past 100, and gamers winning international tournaments. These stories, though inspiring, often omit countless factors and circumstances that influenced these outcomes. 

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As we grow up, we fall into the trap of the "survivorship bias," making decisions based only on the stories of those who succeeded. This bias leads us to overlook the numerous unseen failures.

Take the example of World War II bombers. Initially, it seemed logical to reinforce the areas of returning planes riddled with bullet holes. But Hungarian mathematician Abraham Wald argued that the real vulnerable spots were the engines and fuel tanks—the areas with the fewest hits—because planes hit there never made it back. By focusing on what’s visible (survivors), we ignore what’s crucial (failures).

This bias pervades our thinking, from believing that helmets increase head injuries in war (they actually reduce fatal wounds, increasing survivable injuries) to the myth of dolphins saving shipwrecked sailors while ignoring their potentially dangerous behavior. The media glorifies the past, making us believe that everything was better before, from cars to music, ignoring the many failures along the way.

In today’s world of "successful success," we often idolize those who rise from rags to riches, attributing their success to specific habits or actions. We forget that luck, connections, and many other unseen factors play significant roles. Benjamin Franklin’s morning "air baths" or Albert Einstein’s refusal to wear socks were quirky habits, but their success stemmed from hard work and other factors, not these peculiar rituals.

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Instead of mimicking successful people, focus on creating your path.

Be wary of courses and books that promise quick riches; they often capitalize on your hopes without delivering real value. Understand that success stories represent the survivors, not the complete picture.

The survivorship bias tricks our brains into seeing patterns and making conclusions based on incomplete information. This cognitive shortcut leads to poor decisions, like starting a business without understanding the risks or avoiding investments because of a few high-profile failures.

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To avoid the pitfalls of survivorship bias, learn from both successes and failures. Acknowledge that most companies fail, and only a few achieve lasting success. Don’t chase after the steps of the lucky few who made it. Instead, analyze failures and build your path based on a broader understanding of reality.

Remember, the only book that will make you a millionaire is the one you write and sell yourself. Courses are merely books in different packaging. Critical thinking, recognizing biases, and learning from a full spectrum of experiences will guide you better than any quick-fix solution. Success is often about being in the right place at the right time, combined with hard work and a bit of luck. So, instead of getting lost in the sea of success stories, focus on what truly matters: your unique journey and the lessons learned along the way.

[Anderson]

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