The role of chance in our life or how chance becomes a success

[Anderson]

Let me tell you about a phenomenon responsible for not only numerous great discoveries but also significantly influencing your life more than you might imagine.

This phenomenon was first described in the 18th century by historian Horace Walpole, who was inspired by an ancient Persian tale. The story tells of three princes sent by their emperor to Serendip (modern-day Sri Lanka) to gain life experience through a long journey. On their way, they noticed peculiar tracks, unusual grass patterns, uneven hoof prints, swarming flies on one side of the path, and ants on the other. Without thinking much of it but remembering the details, they arrived in the city, where a shepherd asked if they had seen his lost camel. The young men asked if the camel was blind in one eye, missing a tooth, lame, and carrying honey on one side and butter on the other. The astonished shepherd accused them of stealing the camel and demanded that the emperor punish them.

However, the emperor listened to their reasoning. The grass was eaten on only one side of the path, indicating the camel was blind in one eye. The road had clumps of chewed grass the size of a camel's tooth, suggesting it was missing a tooth. Flies on one side indicated honey, and ants on the other pointed to butter. The original tale even included the princes deducing a pregnant woman had ridden the camel, inferred from urine smell and handprints in the sand, but let’s skip that. Walpole summarized the essence of the story in one word: serendipity, the ability to find valuable or agreeable things not sought for, drawing deep conclusions from random observations.

One scientist aptly noted that serendipity is like searching for a needle in a haystack and finding the farmer's daughter instead. Many significant discoveries and events happen by chance—a random meeting grows into a lifelong friendship, a boring conversation becomes a turning point in one's life, or an unexpected experimental result leads to groundbreaking discoveries. We often think we are pursuing one thing and end up discovering something entirely different.

For example, I recently wrote an ordinary text, blending facts, jokes, and a pinch of personal opinion. But after a sleepless night of work, I found I had unintentionally created something profound. Humanity has long resisted acknowledging the pivotal role of chance. Even in the 19th century, despite many accidental scientific discoveries, scientists believed nature operated harmoniously and predictably, with unchangeable laws leading to inevitable progress.

Yet, many of the greatest discoveries were made entirely by accident - antibiotics, safety glass, Velcro, web cameras, saccharin, pacemakers, rubber, Teflon, superglue, plasticine, insulin, X-rays, the microwave, and even cornflakes were all discovered unintentionally. And this is just a fraction of the accidental discoveries.

One recent serendipitous invention I adore is Fiberscope, a rare phenomenon. Many accidental scientific discoveries defy traditional scientific methods. While many people are familiar with the scientific method, few understand it thoroughly or realize how hard it is to reconcile it with randomness. The scientific method involves observation, question formulation, hypothesis development, experimentation, result analysis, and conclusion drawing—simple enough if you’re a scientist. However, randomness plays a crucial role, and recognizing new, unforeseen opportunities is as important as deep knowledge accumulation.

Many people outside scientific circles believe scientific and technological progress can be predicted or even planned. But in reality, things happen quite differently. With this understanding, studying serendipity has become more relevant than ever.

You might wonder, "What does serendipity have to do with me? I'm not a scientist." In fact, it has everything to do with you! Serendipity is a real way to be lucky in life. Luck is a positively perceived event resulting from specific circumstances in a person's life. The more a person recognizes potential benefits in random events, the more they find themselves in situations that seem lucky from the outside. It's incredibly cool! Every day, events occur that could become luck, but we often miss them.

However, it's not that simple. Listen carefully: no serendipity will help if you're not smart. To see and use opportunities, you need deep knowledge, skills, and most importantly, experience. Here, I recall the debate over luck versus hard work in achieving success. On the Veritasium channel, there's an excellent video on this topic, where the author, based on numerous studies and statistics, concludes that success is hard work plus luck. Given equal conditions, luck becomes the decisive factor.

Successful people often attribute their achievements to hard work and determination, rarely acknowledging the role of luck. It's more pleasant to think that success is solely your merit. However, many determined, intelligent, and hardworking people around us haven't been lucky yet. I recommend you read one of the examples in this post - The Key Differences Between Stubborn and Successful People

Some people consider themselves unlucky, believing higher powers have deprived them of luck. But from a scientific perspective, everyone possesses serendipity to varying degrees. Some hope for luck to strike someday, while others know how to recognize and seize opportunities from random events, combining them with hard work to achieve success.

Serendipity can be seen as a real method to increase the chances of luck. This idea sounds fantastic, especially considering it is actively studied and applied in universities and viewed as a competitive advantage in business.

How can you develop and use serendipity consciously? Imagine leveling up a character's attributes to gain the serendipity skill. First, increase intelligence—this might cause some "sorrow from knowledge," but it significantly boosts the chance of critical success. Next, curiosity, a trait common among scientists. Being curious helps understand random observations.

We also need perception, which helps notice and consider even the most trivial irritations instead of dismissing them. Though it consumes energy, it allows you to find all the hidden opportunities.

Developing these characteristics grants you the coveted serendipity ability. It’s not a magic pill and requires effort to tilt luck in your favor. While researching this topic, I realized that serendipity resembles creativity. Both involve the emergence of the best ideas seemingly out of nowhere, like inspiration.

Is there a real, coherent system for developing creative thinking? Yes, there is. Creativity is not just about drawing. The Theory of Inventive Problem Solving (TRIZ), developed by Soviet inventor Genrich Altshuller in the 1940s, is a widely recognized system. Companies like Samsung, Intel, Ford, Toyota, BMW, General Motors, LG, Gillette, Kodak, Xerox, Boeing, and even NASA use TRIZ methods.

TRIZ results are often hard to obtain because they provide competitive advantages. However, it's known that Samsung registered over 50,000 patents in 2003 alone using TRIZ. TRIZ is based on understanding fundamental principles and mastering critical problem-solving methods. In simple terms, TRIZ is a set of creative problem-solving methods.

It includes well-known techniques like brainstorming, where multiple participants actively discuss a problem and suggest as many solutions as possible, including the most fantastic ones. I often do this alone. Another method is synectics or analogies, comparing and finding similarities between objects or imagining oneself as an object in the problem situation.

Morphological analysis involves finding solutions for parts of a problem to combine them later. For example, deciding what to eat by defining aspects of the problem, selecting solutions for each aspect, and finding the best combination.

The method of focal objects applies properties of unrelated objects to the target object, encouraging looking at the situation from different angles. This can help uncover new solutions and enhance creativity. For example, if you're looking for mushrooms and can't find any, imagine yourself as a mushroom and see things from that perspective.

Additionally, the operator method seeks connections between objects to create a system. This approach helps identify unexpected opportunities and solutions.

As Steve Jobs once said in a speech, every event leads to something, and in the end, the dots will connect. Although it's challenging to foresee these connections, you'll see them in hindsight.

TRIZ is not a magic bullet, but it offers real tools for solving complex problems and developing creative thinking, which in turn enhances serendipity. Interestingly, you probably use these methods intuitively in daily life without knowing they form a cohesive system. Or maybe you did know, and I'm just being pretentious.

TRIZ is a comprehensive and serious system capable of solving many inventive problems. For example, the TRIZ table shows technical characteristics to improve vertically and those not to worsen horizontally. The intersection points indicate methods likely to resolve technical contradictions.

In summary, serendipity is a fascinating phenomenon that combines chance and insight, and by honing our abilities, we can turn randomness into opportunities.

I also recommend you to read related posts

 

[Olga]

I love the idea of exploring serendipity as a force that's both random and intentional, a blend of luck and insight that can shape our lives in unexpected ways. But here's the thing—while the concept of serendipity sounds almost magical, it’s not just about stumbling upon good fortune. It’s about being prepared, aware, and ready to act when those random opportunities present themselves.

Think about those moments when something completely unplanned shifted your life’s direction. Maybe it was a chance encounter at a coffee shop, a random book you picked up at the library, or even a conversation you overheard that sparked a new idea. The magic lies not just in these events happening, but in how you responded to them.

For example, I once found myself stuck in an airport for hours due to a delayed flight. Frustrating, right? But instead of scrolling aimlessly on my phone, I struck up a conversation with the person next to me. That conversation led to a job opportunity that I hadn’t even been looking for. It was a perfect example of serendipity—an accidental but fortunate discovery.

This brings me to an interesting question: How can we cultivate more serendipity in our lives? It’s not about being lucky; it’s about being ready. Here are a few ideas:

Stay Curious: When you’re genuinely curious, you naturally explore more, ask more questions, and engage with the world in a deeper way. This opens doors to new experiences and connections.

Embrace the Unexpected: Sometimes, we get so caught up in our plans that we miss out on spontaneous opportunities. Try saying “yes” to the unexpected more often. You never know where it might lead.

Connect the Dots: Often, it’s not about finding something new but seeing something old in a new way. Practice connecting seemingly unrelated ideas, experiences, or knowledge. This can lead to creative breakthroughs.

Build Your Toolbox: Serendipity favors the prepared mind. The more skills, knowledge, and experience you have, the more likely you’ll recognize and act on serendipitous moments. Think of it as building a toolbox—each new skill or piece of knowledge is another tool you can use when the opportunity arises.

Now, I’d love to hear your thoughts. Have you ever had a serendipitous moment that changed your life? How do you think we can encourage more of these moments? Let’s explore how we can turn the ordinary into something extraordinary.

[Monk]

Let me share a story about a time when I felt completely stuck—caught in one of those frustrating situations where every solution I tried seemed to make things worse. That’s when I stumbled upon TRIZ, a problem-solving methodology that feels almost like a secret weapon for breaking through those tough challenges.

TRIZ, short for “Theory of Inventive Problem Solving,” was developed by a Soviet engineer named Genrich Altshuller back in the 1940s. Altshuller had this bold idea that innovation wasn’t just about random flashes of genius—it could be methodical, almost like a science. So he analyzed thousands of patents to find patterns in how inventive solutions were created. What he discovered was revolutionary: most problems, no matter how unique they seem, fall into patterns that have been solved before.

Think about that for a second. What if the solution to your problem already exists? You just haven’t connected the dots yet.

TRIZ is essentially a toolbox full of strategies for doing just that. It helps you break down your problem, look at it from new angles, and apply principles that have solved similar problems in the past. Let me give you an example.

Imagine you’re an engineer trying to design a new type of car engine that’s both powerful and fuel-efficient. These two goals might seem contradictory—after all, more power usually means more fuel consumption. But TRIZ has a principle called the “Contradiction Matrix,” which helps you navigate exactly this kind of conflict. It guides you to solutions that allow you to have your cake and eat it too—like increasing efficiency by reducing engine weight, rather than cutting down on power.

Or let’s say you’re working on a creative project, maybe writing a book or designing a product, and you hit a wall. You feel like you’re out of ideas. TRIZ introduces techniques like “Morphological Analysis,” where you break your problem into its core components and mix and match them in new ways. It’s like shaking up a box of puzzle pieces to see what new picture might form.

The real beauty of TRIZ, though, is how it teaches you to think. It’s not just about solving the problem in front of you - it’s about transforming how you approach problems in general. You start to see connections where others see chaos, and opportunities where others see dead ends.

For me, discovering TRIZ was like putting on a pair of glasses that let me see the world’s hidden solutions. Problems that once felt insurmountable became challenges that I could navigate with a bit of creativity and a lot of methodical thinking. It’s as if TRIZ taps into the part of your brain that’s designed to innovate but often lies dormant under the weight of routine thinking.

So here’s my question for you: Have you ever faced a problem that seemed to have no solution? What if the answer was out there, hidden in a different context, just waiting for you to find it? Let’s dig into how we can use TRIZ—or even just the mindset behind it—to crack open those tough problems and find innovative solutions. What challenge are you dealing with right now that might benefit from a little TRIZ thinking?

[Anderson]

Let me take you deeper into the world of TRIZ by exploring its 40 Inventive Principles, which are like hidden keys that can unlock innovative solutions to almost any problem. These principles aren’t just abstract ideas; they’re practical strategies that have been used across countless industries to crack tough challenges and drive breakthrough innovations.

Segmentation: Breaking It Down
Have you ever faced a problem that felt overwhelmingly complex, like a tangled web you couldn’t unravel? That’s where the principle of Segmentation comes into play. The idea here is simple yet powerful: instead of tackling a massive problem all at once, break it down into smaller, more manageable parts. 

Imagine you’re working on a project with many moving pieces—a large marketing campaign, for instance. Instead of getting lost in the enormity of the task, you could segment it into smaller, focused areas like social media, content creation, and customer outreach. Each segment can be worked on independently, making the whole process more efficient and less daunting.

Segmentation also applies to product design. Think about modern furniture—many pieces are now modular, meaning you can add or remove sections based on your needs. This flexibility doesn’t just make the furniture more versatile; it also makes manufacturing and shipping easier and more cost-effective. It’s a win-win situation, all thanks to breaking things down into more manageable chunks.

Inversion: Flip It Around
Now, let’s talk about Inversion, one of my personal favorites. This principle is all about flipping the script and looking at your problem from the opposite direction. It’s a bit like turning a puzzle piece upside down to see if it fits better.

For example, consider the challenge of making a product more durable. The usual approach might involve using stronger materials or more robust construction techniques. But what if, instead of making the product indestructible, you designed it to be easily repairable? By inverting the problem—focusing on repairability rather than durability—you might find a solution that’s more sustainable, cost-effective, and customer-friendly.

This principle isn’t just for physical products. It can be applied to services, processes, or even relationships. Imagine you’re struggling with a team that’s not collaborating well. The typical approach might be to enforce stricter rules or hold more meetings. But what if you inverted the problem and instead encouraged more autonomy, giving team members more control over how they collaborate? Sometimes, the solution lies in doing the opposite of what seems logical at first.

Pushing Beyond the Obvious
These principles, Segmentation and Inversion, are just two of the 40 that TRIZ offers, each one nudging you to think beyond the obvious. What makes them so powerful is their ability to shift your perspective, helping you see new possibilities that weren’t apparent before.

Think of these principles as tools in a craftsman’s toolbox. Each tool has a specific purpose, and when used correctly, it can help you shape, refine, and perfect your solution. The more familiar you become with these principles, the more naturally you’ll start to apply them, even without realizing it. It’s like training your brain to look for shortcuts to innovation.

Bringing It to Life
Let’s make this more concrete. Say you’re tasked with improving a service that’s struggling to meet customer demands. Using Segmentation, you might decide to break the service down into smaller, more specialized offerings, allowing customers to pick and choose exactly what they need. This not only simplifies the service but also tailors it to individual needs, making it more attractive and efficient.

Or, take Inversion—you might normally focus on speeding up delivery times. But what if you inverted that goal and instead focused on improving the customer experience while they wait? Offering real-time tracking, engaging content, or surprise discounts could turn the wait time into a positive experience, making customers more satisfied overall.

Invitation to Innovate
The beauty of TRIZ and its Inventive Principles is that they’re not just for engineers or inventors. They’re for anyone looking to solve problems in new and creative ways. Whether you’re trying to design a new product, streamline a process, or even improve your daily life, these principles can help you find innovative solutions.

So, here’s a challenge for you: Think about a problem you’re facing right now. How might you apply **Segmentation** or **Inversion** to tackle it? Could breaking it down into smaller parts make it more manageable? Or could flipping the problem around reveal a solution you hadn’t considered?

Let’s explore how these principles can lead to breakthroughs in our own lives. What problem are you going to approach with a TRIZ mindset today?

[Alisa]

Let’s look at how luck and hard work interplay in a more everyday scenario—something that might resonate with anyone, not just those chasing big dreams.

The Tale of Two Job Seekers

Imagine two job seekers, Sarah and David, both equally qualified, with similar educational backgrounds and work experience. Both are on the hunt for a new job, but their approaches and experiences highlight the subtle but significant role that luck plays alongside hard work.

Sarah is meticulous. She spends hours perfecting her resume, tailoring each cover letter to the specific job, and practicing for interviews. She networks actively, attends industry events, and applies to dozens of jobs every week. Her hard work is undeniable. Despite this, weeks turn into months, and Sarah faces rejection after rejection. She’s doing everything right, but nothing seems to click.

David is also diligent but in a more laid-back way. He applies to jobs regularly but doesn’t put as much effort into tailoring each application. He’s confident in his skills but not as aggressive in networking or following up. One day, David randomly meets an old college friend at a café, and during their conversation, the friend mentions a job opening at their company. David hadn’t heard about this position and wouldn’t have applied otherwise, but thanks to this chance encounter, he gets an interview and eventually lands the job.

So, what happened here? Sarah’s hard work should have led to success, right? But David, with less intense effort, ends up with the job. It’s tempting to chalk this up to luck—David just happened to be in the right place at the right time. But the full story reveals something more nuanced.

The Role of Luck in Timing and Opportunity

David’s “lucky” break didn’t just happen out of nowhere. His chance encounter with his friend was random, but he was ready to seize the opportunity when it appeared. His qualifications and preparation meant he could confidently apply and interview for the job. 

On the other hand, Sarah’s hard work wasn’t wasted either. It might seem that she was simply unlucky, but in reality, her efforts are building a foundation. Her networking, for example, could lead to future opportunities she doesn’t yet see. Maybe the timing just hasn’t aligned for her yet.

Here’s the key takeaway: Luck often plays a crucial role in success, but it’s hard work that puts you in a position to benefit from it. David’s success wasn’t just about being in the right place at the right time—it was also about being ready to act when the opportunity arose. Sarah’s story reminds us that hard work doesn’t always yield immediate results, but it prepares you for when your moment comes.

The Intersection of Luck and Hard Work in Everyday Life

In our daily lives, we often focus on what we can control—working hard, staying prepared, and making the best decisions we can. But there’s always an element of luck or chance that can influence outcomes. The random encounter that leads to a new job, the unexpected recommendation that lands you a new client, or even just being in the right place at the right time—all of these involve a bit of luck.

However, these moments of luck are only beneficial if you’re prepared to seize them. That’s where hard work comes in. It’s like building a sailboat—hard work is what gets you to construct a sturdy, seaworthy vessel. But without wind (luck), the boat isn’t going anywhere. Yet, if the wind comes and your boat is ready, you’re set to sail.

Final Thought

Luck might be beyond our control, but being ready to seize the opportunities it brings is within our reach. The blend of hard work and luck is what ultimately leads to success. So, keep building your boat, and when the wind comes, you’ll be ready to sail toward your goals.

[Olga]

The Myth of Luck | Why Success Is Earned, Not Given

Let’s start by challenging the common belief in luck. Renowned cognitive psychologist Julian Rotter once proposed that people could be divided into two categories: those who believe in luck and wait for fortune to favor them, and those who believe success is something they earn through their own efforts. Rotter's extensive research revealed a critical truth: lasting success typically follows those who rely on their own actions, while those who depend on luck often find it slipping through their fingers. However, there’s a caveat - those who rely solely on themselves can sometimes struggle with feelings of depression, but that’s a discussion for another time.

Other scientific studies take a closer look at the lives of lottery winners - people who have won staggering sums of money. Initially, winning the lottery seems like the ultimate gateway to happiness, the kind that promises a life of ease and joy. But the reality is far more sobering. Within a year and a half, these winners’ sense of happiness usually reverts to the level they experienced before their windfall, and eventually, many feel even worse than they did before they won. This decline illustrates a fundamental truth: luck can be dangerous if it’s all you rely on.

Consider a metaphor to grasp this concept further. Imagine you’re navigating life like a sailing ship dependent on the wind. You might try to catch one breeze after another, but the wind is unpredictable - it might not blow when you need it most. Historically, humanity has developed tools to reduce our dependence on external forces, like steam engines or nuclear-powered icebreakers. These innovations ensure that progress depends on the ship’s own capabilities, not on the whims of the wind. Similarly, in life, we must decide whether to risk sailing with just a sailboat, dependent on luck, or to take control and steer our lives with intent and purpose.

Some might argue that luck is about being smarter or more resourceful than others, about spotting a unique opportunity and seizing it. But our world is far too complex for such simplistic thinking. I joke that if someone could truly write a book on how to become a millionaire, that book would never make it to the printing press - someone would grab it long before then. Even if it did get published, it would cause chaos, with everyone becoming millionaires, leading to inflation and economic collapse.

This idea highlights a fundamental truth: if success were as simple as following a formula, everyone would be successful. But they aren’t, because the world is filled with empty promises, and many people fall prey to them, hoping for an easy path to success. From get-rich-quick schemes to the latest cryptocurrency fads, there’s always something promising instant success. But these “secret shortcuts” rarely work. Those who achieve real success often tell a story about how they think they succeeded, but the reality is that a multitude of factors - many outside their control - played a role.

Certainly, circumstances play a role in success, but these circumstances are often shaped by the individual, even if they don’t realize it. The world is full of opportunities, given its complexity and the myriad processes at play. However, you can only capitalize on these opportunities if you’re prepared - if you have the skills, knowledge, and readiness to recognize and harness them.

For example, when I created my business, many thought I was just lucky. What they didn’t see was all the work I had put in beforehand - years of failures, learning, and gaining the skills needed to make the show possible. I made several attempts to create pilots for the show, all of which failed. But these failures were crucial—they taught me what didn’t work and helped me refine my approach. By the time the show finally aired, it was the culmination of all the lessons I had learned from those earlier mistakes.

Waiting for luck is the riskiest strategy because it often means missing out on the chance to develop new skills, observe life closely, and understand where your true strengths lie. Instead of hoping for a lucky break, you should be actively working on yourself - training, gaining new competencies, and honing the skills where you have the potential to excel. It’s these focused efforts that ultimately lead to success, not some miraculous stroke of luck.

Think of it this way: if an opportunity to excel in your chosen field presented itself right now, would you be ready? What skills and knowledge would you need to seize that opportunity? Different endeavors require different psychological characteristics, and by understanding what’s needed, you can better prepare yourself. It’s possible that the path you’re on might not be the one that truly suits you, which is why self-awareness and continuous development are key.

Finally, imagine that a fortunate opportunity is already in front of you. What qualities, skills, and knowledge do you possess that would allow you to make the most of it? By asking yourself these questions, you can develop a plan to prepare for future opportunities, ensuring that when they come, you’re ready to take full advantage.

Final thoughts:

I underscore the powerful message that success is earned, not given. It challenges the myth of luck, emphasizing that while external factors can influence outcomes, the true foundation of success is built on preparation, resilience, and continuous self-improvement. By focusing on developing our skills and understanding our strengths, we position ourselves to make the most of the opportunities that inevitably come our way. This approach not only increases our chances of success but also makes that success more meaningful and sustainable. In the end, true satisfaction comes from knowing that you’ve earned your achievements through hard work and perseverance, rather than leaving your fate to the whims of chance.